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2013 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2013 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 Sep. 2014 Sep. 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 54 53 47 43 39 43
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 Sep. 2014 Sep. 2015 2018
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.90.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.8 3.2 3.2 4.3 4.02.1
0.5 to 0.9% 4.4 11.6 11.3 12.3 11.77.3
1.0 to 1.4% 44.7 31.7 22.0 28.8 22.617.5
1.5 to 1.9% 44.0 35.8 32.4 33.1 30.329.2
2.0 to 2.4% 4.4 12.7 20.1 14.2 19.324.2
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 3.2 7.2 4.5 7.412.0
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.7 2.0 1.2 2.44.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.71.5
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.30.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2013 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2018
Mean point estimate -0.4 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 54 53 42 42 35 42
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2018
<-1.0% 2.8 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.60.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 22.4 1.3 0.7 2.0 1.10.7
-0.5 to -0.1% 62.4 4.7 2.3 7.1 2.91.6
0.0 to 0.4% 10.3 12.6 6.6 17.1 8.64.6
0.5 to 0.9% 1.8 29.4 13.7 31.6 15.910.5
1.0 to 1.4% 0.3 30.7 28.0 23.5 25.123.4
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 13.1 28.2 11.1 25.726.7
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 5.5 12.3 5.0 12.217.9
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 1.7 5.1 1.2 5.18.5
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.4 2.03.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.71.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.30.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2013 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 Aug. 2014 Aug. 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 12.1 12.1 11.6 12.0 11.6 9.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8
Number of replies 51 51 41 40 34 37
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 Aug. 2014 Aug. 2015 2018
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.9
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.1
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.13.8
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.15.8
8.5 to 8.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.38.5
9.0 to 9.4% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.015.4
9.5 to 9.9% 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.3 1.819.1
10.0 to 10.4% 0.2 0.9 4.2 1.3 4.417.1
10.5 to 10.9% 0.6 2.7 8.9 2.8 8.413.1
11.0 to 11.4% 2.1 8.0 19.5 9.0 19.77.3
11.5 to 11.9% 18.2 25.8 29.3 25.9 28.83.6
12.0 to 12.4% 63.7 37.6 20.6 33.5 19.91.4
12.5 to 12.9% 11.7 17.0 9.2 17.9 9.20.6
13.0 to 13.4% 2.5 5.4 4.1 6.0 4.50.2
13.5 to 13.9% 0.8 1.9 1.2 2.5 1.50.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.20.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0