MONETARY POLICY
30 October 2025
Our monetary policy statement at a glance
What are the main points in our new monetary policy statement and what mattered to us in our decision? Our visual statement explains this in short and easy-to-understand language.
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ACCOUNTABILITY
30 October 2025
Digital euro project enters next phase
We are moving to the next phase of the digital euro project, aimed at ensuring technical readiness. If the co-legislators adopt a legislation on the digital euro in 2026, a pilot could start in 2027, followed by the potential issuance of the digital euro in 2029.
Read the press release
PODCAST
30 October 2025
Tune in to our latest decisions
Our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to maintain stable prices in the euro area. Listen to this episode where President Christine Lagarde presents the decisions during our press conference.
The ECB Podcast- 4 November 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 4 November 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 31 October 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 31 October 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 31 October 2025
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 31 October 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 4 November 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the high-level conference on “Bulgaria on the Doorstep of the Eurozone”, jointly organised by the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance and Българска народна банка (Bulgarian National Bank)
- 3 November 2025
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Technological University in Dublin
- 30 October 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Florence, 30 October 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 30 October 2025
- 29 October 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the official dinner given by the Banca d’Italia in Florence, Italy
- 27 October 2025
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ECB and EUI Banking Governance High-Level Seminar “Board of the Future”
- 9 October 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Žanete Hāka-Rikarde and Priit Pokk on 29 September 2025
- 25 September 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, conducted by Francesco Ninfole on 24 September 2025Related
- 26 September 2025
- 26 September 2025
- 17 September 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Anja Ettel and Holger Zschäpitz
- 3 September 2025
- Contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to IMF Finance & Development Magazine
- 28 August 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi on 28 August 2025
- 20 October 2025
- The economist Robert Lucas famously wrote that “Once one starts to think about economic growth, it is hard to think about anything else.” The Nobel committee seems to agree. For the second year in a row, it has chosen to honour work on economic growth. This ECB Blog post looks at the research of this year’s laureates.Details
- JEL Code
- O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
- 17 October 2025
- Banks have bought back over €60 billion of their own shares since 2020, which is a sign of the industry’s confidence. However, share buybacks can also reduce the capital banks have available for potential crises. This blog post examines how euro area banks’ share prices reacted to these buybacks.Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 10 October 2025
- Do European workers see US tariff hikes as a threat to their job security? According to an ECB survey, while most workers are fairly relaxed, those in export-oriented sectors and those with lower incomes are more worried about their jobs than before the tariff increase.Details
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F16 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Labor Market Interactions
- 2 October 2025
- Uncertainty is a key force shaping economic conditions. This post shows that heightened uncertainty about economic policy in the United States significantly affects firm lending in the euro area. This weighs on investment and reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
- 26 September 2025
- Good statistics are accurate, timely, consistent and comparable. Only then can they be the unbiased reality check needed for responsible decision-making. The ECB blog looks back at past mistakes and what Europe has learned from them.Details
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 4 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3142Details
- Abstract
- In recent years, projects have sought to embed distributional aspects within national accounts, with household distributional information set to feature in the next System of National Accounts. There is growing emphasis on capturing all material dimensions of welfare—income, consumption, and wealth—at both macro and micro levels within a unified framework. This paper develops distributional multidimensional accounts for income and wealth, building on the Distributional Wealth Accounts (DWA), an experimental quarterly dataset first released in January 2024 by the European System of Central Banks. The DWA integrates the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) with macro statistics on household financial and non-financial balance sheets. We use the HFCS’s micro population to estimate consistent joint income transactions for these households, enabling analysis of the joint distribution of income and wealth, including wealth by income decile. This is the first multi-country approach to cover complete income accounts to disposable income and full balance sheets on a shared household sample.
- JEL Code
- D30 : Microeconomics→Distribution→General
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 4 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3141Details
- Abstract
- We model how a central bank communicates its noisy forecasts (forward guidance) while taking into account its own uncertainty (confidence) and the public’s perception of the bank’s uncertainty (reputation for confidence). This creates a mismatch between the public and central bank’s interpretation of the bank announcement which induces the bank to communicate with partial transparency and deliberate imprecision. Moreover, with higher confidence (lower reputation) announcements are more precise. With text data from internal Fed documents and newspapers, we find communication patterns are largely consistent with the model except the Fed’s communication strategy underreacts to reputation compared to the model.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C49 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Other
- 3 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3140Details
- Abstract
- How do banks manage the behavioural maturity of non-maturing deposits (NMDs)? Using a rich and confidential dataset, we investigate how banks model deposit maturities based on internal assumptions. Although NMDs are contractually floating-rate liabilities with zero maturity, banks reallocate them across different maturity buckets using models that reflect past customer behaviour. Notably, only 20% of NMDs are treated as having zero maturity, while about 10% are assigned maturities beyond seven years. We assess whether these modelling assumptions align with banks’ deposit structures. Results show that banks with more volatile, interest rate-sensitive, and digitalised deposit bases tend to assign shorter maturities, appropriately reflecting underlying risks. However, during the recent monetary policy tightening, banks with more sensitive NMDs did not shorten assumed maturities or update models. These findings underscore the critical importance of timely and accurate calibration of NMD assumptions to support effective asset-liability management and preserve financial stability.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 3 November 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 31 October 2025
- LEGAL WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 23Details
- Abstract
- On 9 April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) delivered a landmark ruling in Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland. The ruling was handed down together with two further rulings in Duarte Agostinho and others v. Portugal and others, and in Carême v. France. The ruling marked the first time the ECtHR held that insufficient climate action by a state constitutes a violation of human rights under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). While primarily having an impact on Switzerland as a defending State, the ruling is expected to indirectly affect the legal order of the European Union and its institutions. Moreover, the findings of the ECtHR have been reinforced by recent advisory opinions of other international courts and tribunals, in particular the opinion of the International Court of Justice, handed down on 23 July 2025. This paper first recalls the key facts and outcomes from each of the three ECtHR climate rulings and explores the key findings in greater detail. Second, the paper outlines the climate rulings of other international courts and tribunals. Thereafter, the paper explains the relevance of the KlimaSeniorinnen ruling for the Union and its institutions. First, as a matter of substance, the paper explains how the ruling carries lessons for the ambition and implementation of the climate policies of the Union and its Member States. Second, the paper goes on to explore the procedural avenues for litigants to bring an action before the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), to challenge Union policies on the basis of the ECtHR’s ruling. The paper then outlines how the ruling may be relevant to the ECB, and for the national central banks (NCBs) and national competent authorities (NCAs) within the Eurosystem and Single Supervisory Mechanism. Finally, the paper explores how the ruling may be relevant to the financial sector, insofar as it increases the risk of litigation, and risks related to the process of adjustment towards a low-carbon economy (transition risk).
- 31 October 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 31 October 2025
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
- 31 October 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 29 September and 9 October 2025, business conditions improved slightly in recent months, but they remained consistent with only modest growth in activity, with the manufacturing sector still weighed down by tariffs, uncertainty and challenges to competitiveness. The employment outlook also remained relatively subdued. Price growth continued to moderate. In recent months this was mainly due to slowing price rises in parts of the services sector, while prices in the manufacturing sector remained stable in a context of weak demand and increasing import competition. Firms remained confident that wage growth would continue slowing.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 31 October 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 31 October 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 30 October 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPSRelated
- 30 October 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - PROGRESS REPORT
- 30 October 2025
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +
- 30 October 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - PROGRESS REPORTRelated
- 30 October 2025
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +
- 30 October 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE DOCUMENT
- 30 October 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - SCHEME RULEBOOK DEVELOPMENT GROUP DOCUMENTS
- 30 October 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE DOCUMENT
- 30 October 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 28 October 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 28 October 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
- 27 October 2025
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 27 October 2025
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 20 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3139Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy announcements on household expectations. We document announcements of price-related expansionary fiscal measures in response to the cost-of-living crisis in the four largest euro area economies and exploit the exogenous timing of fiscal actions relative to household survey participation to estimate their causal effects. Following fiscal announcements, households revise their beliefs: inflation perceptions rise, and unemployment perceptions fall. The latter effect persists into short-run unemployment expectations, while inflation expectations remain unchanged and suggest households perceived inflationary pressures as temporary. These results suggest a significant signaling channel of fiscal policy, as fiscal announcements reveal information about the underlying economic conditions and the government’s commitment to stabilization. We rationalize these findings through a general equilibrium New Keynesian model extended with information frictions and an inflation-stabilizing role for fiscal policy. The model isolates the informational content of fiscal policy and shows that belief revisions are consistent with demand-driven dynamics.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 17 October 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 14 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3138Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a unified framework to study the permanent and transitory origins of US economic fluctuations. The model provides a reasonable account of the evolution of the economy in the post-war period and of the recent inflation episode. Overall, it constitutes a comprehensive framework to offer policy guidance and a flexible empirical counterpart to more heavily-parametrized structural models.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 13 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3137Details
- Abstract
- This chapter of the Research Handbook of Inflation (2025) reviews the evolution and current relevance of medium-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which serve as part of the core analytical framework in central banks and academic macroeconomics. The chapter assesses their capacity to analyse inflation dynamics, monetary transmission mechanisms, and policy interventions. Despite their exclusion of crisis-specific features, canonical models such as Smets and Wouters (2007) continue to explain inflation and output dynamics in the euro area and the US, owing in part to the differentiated effects of cost-push and demand shocks and the mitigating role of monetary policy. The chapter traces advancements in the European Central Bank’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), highlighting extensions that incorporate financial frictions, effective lower bounds, and energy price shocks. These enhancements have strengthened the model’s forecasting performance and interpretative power, especially during periods of unconventional monetary policy and energy-driven inflation. DSGE models are shown to be particularly effective for policy counterfactuals, enabling real-time assessments of policy decisions relative to model-based optimal policy. A robustness analysis under alternative scenarios demonstrates how policy rules can be evaluated through a welfare lens, informing the design of resilient monetary frameworks. Finally, the chapter identifies key modelling challenges exposed by recent inflation episodes and advocates for richer supply-side structures and nonlinear dynamics to improve the models’ capacity to capture complex macroeconomic developments.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
- 13 October 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 10 October 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPSRelated
- 10 October 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE DOCUMENT
- 10 October 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE DOCUMENT
- 9 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3136Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of “fiscal drag”—the increase in tax revenue that occurs when nominal tax bases grow but nominal parameters of progressive tax legislation are not updated accordingly—across 21 European countries using a microsimulationapproach. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities, showing that the progressivity built in each country’s personal income tax system induces elasticities around 1.7–2 for many countries, indicating a potential for large fiscal drag effects. We unpack these elasticities to show stark heterogeneity in their underlying mechanisms (tax brackets or tax deductions and credits), across income sources (labor, capital, self-employment, public benefits), and across the individual income distribution. Second, we extend the analysis beyond these elasticities to study fiscal drag in practice between 2019 and 2023, incorporating observed income growth and legislative changes. We quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag and the extent to which government policies have offset it, either through indexation or other reforms. Our results provide new insights into the fiscal and distributional effects of fiscal drag in Europe, as well as useful statistics for modeling public finances.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 9 October 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 376Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the relationship between capital requirements, capital ratios and bank competitiveness – measured as profit efficiency. Using data envelopment analysis techniques, profit efficiency scores were estimated for a sample of listed significant institutions directly supervised by the European Central Bank. In calculating the scores, use was made of rich supervisory data on bank-specific characteristics and capital requirements, in addition to macroeconomic variables. The findings revealed that capital requirements do not have a statistically significant effect on profit efficiency. The insignificant relationship also held true when capital requirements were broken down into microprudential and macroprudential requirements. For capital ratios, the relationship with profit efficiency was linearly statistically insignificant, but did display a statistically significant non-linear relationship that followed an inverted U-shape: profit efficiency rose with capital up to a threshold (estimated at a common equity tier 1 ratio of around 18%), after which further increases curbed profit efficiency. These findings were robust to a wide battery of robustness checks, including an extension of the sample to unlisted banks and the use of different efficiency measures and of various methods to control for confounding factors. These results underscore the need for policymakers to ensure that banks remain resilient, maintain strong capital ratios and manage risk well. In addition, they point to the intricate link between bank capital, regulation and competitiveness, contributing to the ongoing debate about the European banking sector’s ability to support economic growth and innovation.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2.00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2.15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2.40 % |
Inflation rate
More on inflationExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.1514 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 177.57 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87650 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9298 |
Financial stability
Our tasks Institutional framework Financial Stability Review Macroprudential policy measuresMarket operations
Open market operations Asset purchase programmes Lendings of holdings under PSPPNOT AN EXPERT? CHECK OUT OUR EXPLAINERS
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