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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

December 2025
At a glance

Inflation outlook

Headline inflation should edge somewhat below 2% in 2026 and 2027, before increasing to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% in 2028. Core inflation should decline as wage pressures and services inflation moderate.

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Gross domestic product outlook

The euro area economy is proving to be more resilient than expected. As household incomes rise, government spending increases, financing conditions improve and foreign demand rebounds, growth should average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and 2028.

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Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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