Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
EVENT
29 January 2026
International Holocaust Remembrance Day
Yesterday, on International Holocaust Remembrance Day, we honoured the memory of the millions of lives lost in the Holocaust. The ECB’s main building stands on a site marked by this tragic history. This year and every year, we stand united against hate and antisemitism.
THE ECB BLOG
26 January 2026
Credit Dynamics in the euro area
An effective transmission of monetary policy to credit is key for supporting investment and real economic activity. This blog post shows that the recent recovery in credit growth has been more gradual than in past episodes and explores the factors behind this sluggish recovery.
Read the ECB Blog
PODCAST
28 January 2026
Spilling the beans on food inflation
How much do you spend on food every month? How have food prices changed over the past year? And what can we expect from our grocery bills in 2026? Our host Stefania Secola speaks to economists Elisabeth Wieland and Zivile Zekaite to answer these questions.
Listen to the latest episode of The ECB Podcast- 29 January 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 29 January 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
- 29 January 2026
- PAYMENT INSTRUMENTS AND SYSTEMSAnnexes
- 29 January 2026
- PAYMENT INSTRUMENTS AND SYSTEMS
- 28 January 2026
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
- 28 January 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 January 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 28 January 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Frauennetzwerktreffen Baden-Badener Unternehmer Gespräche in Frankfurt, Germany
- 28 January 2026
- Frank Elderson: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentIntroductory statement by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
- 14 January 2026
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 16th edition of Spain Investors Day
- 9 January 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Danish Economic Society Conference
- 19 December 2025
- Lecture by Mr Lane at Economics Winter Workshop organised by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland
- 28 January 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Manuel V. Gomez on 22 January 2026
- 26 January 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Markus Zydra and Meike Schreiber on 15 January 2026
- 15 January 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kathryn Carlson, Geoffrey Smith and Johanna Treeck
- 12 January 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Fabrizio Goria on 12 January 2026
- 8 December 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Mark Schrörs on 3 December 2025
- 26 January 2026
- An effective transmission of monetary policy to credit is key for supporting investment and growth. This blog post examines the recent credit recovery, highlighting that it has been more gradual than in past episodes and explores the factors behind this sluggish recovery.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 19 January 2026
- The way central banks communicate has a profound impact on how people perceive monetary policy. But who delivers messages also matters. This ECB Blog post explains how the messenger can affect both the reach and influence of policy communication.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 16 January 2026
- The euro area yield curve steepened significantly in 2025 as long-term and especially very long-term interest rates increased. This ECB Blog post dissects what happened and explores key drivers behind the unusually strong shift.Details
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 15 January 2026
- The ESCB has strengthened its climate indicators, introducing new breakdowns of sustainable bonds, data on how inflation affects banks’ carbon intensity metrics, and improved data and models assessing physical risks. This ECB Blog post offers a quick overview of the enhancements.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 6 January 2026
- Central banks often struggle to make themselves understood to the wider public. Visuals can help to change this. The ECB Blog travels across the globe to showcase the creative ways in which central banks communicate monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 28 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3179Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops a novel empirical framework to analyse the drivers of business expectations in the euro area. Using harmonised data from the European Commission’s business surveys for manufacturing, services, and construction, we build composite business expectations indices (BEI) for activity and prices. These composite BEI exhibit strong predictive power for near-term real GDP growth and GDP deflator inflation. To identify the underlying forces shaping expectations, we estimate sector-specific structural Bayesian vector autoregression models, combining responses on expectations and reported limits to production. According to the results, demand-side shocks, notably product demand and financial conditions, account for the bulk of fluctuations in business expectations, with heterogeneous effects across sectors. Supply-side shocks, notably materials supply and labour conditions, play a significant role in driving price expectations, especially during the post-pandemic inflationary period. Our results demonstrate the value of a granular survey-based modelling approach for real-time economic analysis and policy assessment.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
- 28 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3178Details
- Abstract
- We study how deposit rate shocks transmit across banking markets through digital social ties. Depositors’ inattention implies that households react to outside rate changes only when social networks make these changes salient, inducing connected banks to raise their own rates. Using merger-driven shocks to local deposit rates and county-level social connectedness, we show that small banks increase rates in response to shocks occurring in socially linked but geographically distant counties. Spillovers are economically meaningful, persistent, and stronger in competitive markets and in counties with more financially sophisticated households. Digital social ties therefore activate depositor search and integrate deposit markets across space.
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
- 28 January 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 28 January 2026
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
- 27 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3177Details
- Abstract
- The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on 1 October 2023, introducing reporting requirements for importers of covered products and, from 2026, an obligation to pay a fee on the carbon content of imported goods. This paper uses indices of ad valorem tariffs to assess the incidence of the EU CBAM on both EU member states and the EU’s trading partners. Overall, the direct impact on EU countries’ trade is estimated to be small, adding 0.1 percent to the value of EU imports when averaged across all imports, and 0.04 percent to the average cost of non-EU countries’ exports to the EU—with a maximum of 1.2 percent. However, effects could be sizeable for specific products such as iron, steel and aluminium, which can help explain CBAM’s political salience. Moreover, an expanded CBAM featuring full coverage of ETS sectors, and a significantly higher carbon price could entail larger costs in the more distant future.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F64 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Environment
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
- 27 January 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 139Details
- Abstract
- The post-pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand andopportunistic price hikes. In fact, it is better explained by the effects of theeconomy’s production network and “state-dependent” pricing, where firmschange prices optimally when the reward justifies the effort. Firms are tightlylinked through supply chains so a surge in prices upstream can triggersimultaneous repricing by many layers of firms downstream, fuelling broad-based inflation. Unlike standard models, our euro area model includes theseeffects and successfully reproduces the post-pandemic inflation surge andfaster repricing. This implies analysis of such effects is indispensable formonetary policy
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 22 January 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 22 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3176Details
- Abstract
- We provide empirical evidence that the pricing of green bonds tends to be highly sophisticated and based on a two-tiered approach. When buying a green bond, investors do not look only at the presence of a green label, but also consider additional characteristics of the bond that involve the environmental score of the issuer and the soundness of the underlying project. By comparing the yields at issuance of green bonds to those of a matched control sample of conventional bonds, our baseline specification identifies a premium of 16 basis points for the green label alone. Furthermore, when the environmental score of the issuer is in the top tercile of the cross-sectional distribution of such an indicator across the analyzed issuers, the greenium nearly doubles. Green certification and periods of heightened climate uncertainty also significantly affect the size of the greenium.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
- 22 January 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 22 January 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 19 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3175Details
- Abstract
- We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve’s target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important regime-specific asymmetries. The Taylor principle holds across all four regimes. The systematic policy response to the output gap weakens when inflation is below target but output remains above potential, whereas the response to inflation is broadly similar across regimes. The size of monetary policy shocks is significantly larger when inflation exceeds its target. The Phillips curve steepens when inflation exceeds target and output is above potential, while output sensitivity to interest rate changes declines under high inflation and economic slack. This explains why monetary policy shocks are significantly larger in inflationary booms, but transmission becomes less effective when elevated inflation coincides with economic slack.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 19 January 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 15 January 2026
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETINEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2025, from 30 July to 4 November 2025.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Firms that have faced adverse shocks to their business activity can decide to either shed labour or hold on to their workforce, i.e. “hoard labour”. This choice can be related to expectations about the future business outlook, prices and costs. Evidence suggests that there is a clear link, in particular, between recent labour hoarding decisions taken by firms and their labour cost growth expectations. With regard to the outlook for pricing, firms that have experienced a deterioration in their overall business conditions are also less optimistic about increasing their selling prices.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box provides updated evidence on developments in the household saving rate and its recent drivers. It shows that income and consumption have grown at similar rates since mid-2024, stabilising the saving rate at a level well above its pre-pandemic average. Model-based evidence suggests that lower real interest rates and rising real net wealth have increased incentives to consume, but that these effects have not fully offset the fact that savings continue to be supported by strong labour income growth. Complementing this macroeconomic evidence, survey data from the Consumer Expectations Survey suggests that heightened policy-related and individual uncertainty may also have contributed to the persistence of elevated saving.
- JEL Code
- D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Uncertainty surrounding trade policy has become a key factor shaping the investment and production decisions of firms. While text-based measures such as the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) index are widely used to track these developments, their readings can be misinterpreted when treated as direct measures of uncertainty shocks. Keyword-driven co-mentions might, for example, inflate the index in periods of heightened trade tensions. This box introduces an alternative text-based measure, constructed by regressing the raw TPU index on a set of covariates, that can be more reliably incorporated into standard macroeconomic models by removing some of the contamination and offers a clearer view of how trade policy uncertainty affects economic activity.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- On 1 January 2026 Bulgaria adopted the euro and became the 21st member of the euro area. For the Bulgarian economy this is expected to bring lower transaction and borrowing costs, as well as greater investor confidence. While Bulgaria has made significant progress in achieving convergence towards the euro area, continued reforms will help the country to fully benefit from euro adoption and support a smooth participation within the enlarged euro area.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article examines the key challenges for short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity since the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the persistently elevated levels of uncertainty. It details the significant enhancements made to the short-term forecasting models of the ECB as part of a general review aimed at improving their accuracy. It also highlights exploratory work on alternative approaches using advanced machine learning methods, which offer promising avenues to address the complexities of economic forecasting in times of high uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 14 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The European Union (EU) Single Market has significantly enhanced economic welfare, competitiveness and resilience by facilitating the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. Its achievements notwithstanding, the Single Market still has untapped potential, as persistent structural barriers hinder deeper integration, particularly in the cross-border trade of goods and services. Using a gravity model, this paper quantifies the economic impact of these barriers. The findings reveal that barriers could be reduced by 8 percentage points for goods and 9 percentage points for services if all EU countries were to achieve the same degree of trade integration as the Netherlands, a country estimated to be one of the most integrated EU Member States. In the long term, this would lead to significant welfare, i.e. real income, gains of up to 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, compared with a baseline of no further integration. Furthermore, simulation results suggest that a modest 2% reduction in Single Market barriers could offset projected GDP losses from higher US tariffs. The study emphasises that these estimates are conservative and that deeper integration, particularly in the services sector, could unlock even greater economic benefits.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 14 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3174Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe assets and the geography of dollar intermediation, stablecoins transform the dynamics of global financial markets, generating new trade-offs, also for the U.S.: even if they widen the dollar’s global footprint and compress U.S. risk-free yields, they entail non-trivial macro-financial costs. Stablecoins dampen the domestic real effects of U.S. monetary policy and increase both U.S. and foreign exposure to cross-country shocks, making a more digital, dollar-centric reserve system less stable. These effects are limited at low adoption levels but rise non-linearly with stablecoin capitalization, reshaping the functioning of the international financial system.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
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