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2021 Q3
Inflation forecasts
Core inflation forecasts
Real GDP growth forecasts
Unemployment rate forecasts
HICP Inflation forecasts
Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat
2021 Q3 inflation forecasts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | June 2022 | June 2023 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Number of replies | 55 | 55 | 43 | 45 | 35 | 39 |
| Probability distributions | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | June 2022 | June 2023 | 2026 |
| <-1.0% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 0.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 2.3 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 9.7 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 11.3 | 28.9 | 27.9 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 18.7 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 41.0 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 32.4 | 32.0 | 29.5 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 34.8 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 16.3 | 17.1 | 18.5 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 7.4 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 9.9 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| >4.0% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Core HICP inflation forecasts
Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.
2021 Q3 core inflation forecasts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | June 2022 | June 2023 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Number of replies | 42 | 42 | 36 | 36 | 30 | 30 |
| Probability distributions | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | June 2022 | June 2023 | 2026 |
| <-1.0% | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 22.0 | 20.9 | 13.9 | 20.6 | 17.2 | 10.3 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 47.6 | 36.4 | 32.8 | 34.8 | 30.1 | 23.1 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 19.7 | 23.7 | 27.0 | 22.5 | 27.2 | 30.7 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 4.0 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 16.4 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 0.6 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 7.1 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 4.1 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| >4.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Real GDP growth forecasts
Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.
2021 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 Q1 | 2023 Q1 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Standard deviation | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Number of replies | 56 | 56 | 43 | 46 | 36 | 39 |
| Probability distributions | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 Q1 | 2023 Q1 | 2026 |
| <-1.0% | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 5.9 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 0.2 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 16.0 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 0.3 | 1.1 | 14.9 | 0.4 | 8.4 | 23.4 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 0.5 | 1.5 | 20.7 | 0.7 | 15.7 | 25.5 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 1.3 | 2.7 | 24.7 | 1.6 | 20.0 | 11.7 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 3.1 | 5.6 | 12.8 | 3.3 | 18.4 | 7.2 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 7.5 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 12.8 | 2.4 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 22.2 | 26.2 | 4.0 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 1.3 |
| 4.0 to 5.9% | 51.9 | 37.5 | 3.8 | 26.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| 6.0 to 7.9% | 8.8 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 34.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 8.0 to 9.9% | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 10.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| >10.0% | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Unemployment rate forecasts
The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.
2021 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | May 2022 | May 2023 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| Standard deviation | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Number of replies | 50 | 49 | 39 | 36 | 29 | 32 |
| Probability distributions | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | May 2022 | May 2023 | 2026 |
| <5.5% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 5.5 to 5.9% | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 6.0 to 6.4% | 0.6 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 7.9 |
| 6.5 to 6.9% | 1.3 | 6.8 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 11.0 | 15.6 |
| 7.0 to 7.4% | 6.6 | 23.0 | 26.6 | 16.3 | 24.0 | 26.0 |
| 7.5 to 7.9% | 33.7 | 30.2 | 27.7 | 28.6 | 22.3 | 18.8 |
| 8.0 to 8.4% | 36.5 | 20.7 | 13.9 | 23.9 | 18.2 | 11.4 |
| 8.5 to 8.9% | 14.3 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 5.9 |
| 9.0 to 9.4% | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 5.0 |
| 9.5 to 9.9% | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 10.0 to 10.4% | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10.5 to 10.9% | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| 11.0 to 11.4% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 11.5 to 11.9% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 12.0 to 12.4% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 12.5 to 12.9% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 13.0 to 13.4% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 13.5 to 13.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 14.0 to 14.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 14.5 to 14.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| >15.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |