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2006 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2006 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2006 2007 2008 June 2007 June 2008 2011
Mean point estimate 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Number of replies 54 54 44 46 41 38
Probability distributions 2006 2007 2008 June 2007 June 2008 2011
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.30.7
0.5-0.9% 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.8 2.13.1
1.0-1.4% 0.6 3.8 9.8 5.5 11.010.3
1.5-1.9% 9.4 24.1 39.3 27.7 40.442.2
2.0-2.4% 66.7 51.9 37.0 46.7 34.332.2
2.5-2.9% 21.8 16.0 9.5 16.8 9.88.2
3.0-3.4% 1.1 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.02.3
>3.5% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.20.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2006 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2006 2007 2008 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2011
Mean point estimate 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 53 53 39 45 35 35
Probability distributions 2006 2007 2008 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2011
<0.0% 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.20.4
0.0-0.4% 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.80.7
0.5-0.9% 0.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 3.03.2
1.0-1.4% 2.6 11.5 11.0 11.1 11.711.8
1.5-1.9% 23.8 43.3 32.7 36.0 36.733.1
2.0-2.4% 58.9 31.8 39.7 38.7 34.830.5
2.5-2.9% 12.5 6.4 10.1 8.9 10.814.4
3.0-3.4% 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.94.3
3.5-3.9% 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.31.3
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.00.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2006 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2006 2007 2008 May 2007 May 2008 2011
Mean point estimate 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.0
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 49 49 36 41 34 33
Probability distributions 2006 2007 2008 May 2007 May 2008 2011
<5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.10.9
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.22.1
6.0-6.4% 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.79.7
6.5-6.9% 0.4 3.6 7.6 3.3 7.818.6
7.0-7.4% 5.8 22.2 32.6 21.9 29.929.9
7.5-7.9% 51.2 45.0 33.7 45.2 35.521.4
8.0-8.4% 37.1 23.0 18.3 22.2 19.611.9
8.5-8.9% 3.9 4.1 4.0 5.0 4.44.0
9.0-9.4% 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.11.0
9.5-9.9% 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.50.4
10.0-10.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.1
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0