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Dimitris Christopoulos
- 4 May 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2544Details
- Abstract
- We develop a horizontal R&D growth model that allows us to investigate the different channels through which financial reforms affect R&D investment and patent activity. First, a “micro” reform that abolishes barriers to entry in the banking sector produces a straightforward result: a decrease in lending rates which stimulates R&D investment and economic growth. Second, a “macro” reform that removes restrictions on banks’ reserves and credit controls. While this reform increases liquidity, it also increases the risk of default, potentially raising the cost of borrowing. This we dub the “reserves paradox” – this makes banks offset the rise in the default rate with a higher spread between loans and deposit rates. Thus our model suggests that whilst micro reforms boost innovation, macro reforms may appear negative. We test and find empirical support for these propositions using a sample of 21 OECD countries.
- JEL Code
- G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
- 18 December 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2345Details
- Abstract
- Using a novel methodology, we offer new evidence that a threshold relationship exists for Okun’s law. We use a logistic smoothed transition regression (LSTR) model where possible threshold endogeneity is addressed based on copula theory. We also suggest a new test of the linearity hypothesis against the LSTR model. A combination of structural and policy-related variables accounts for changes (rises) in the Okun’s parameter in the US in recent decades. Accordingly, the unemployment gap is increasingly associated with a smaller output gap. Whilst the Great Recession accelerated that rise, the bulk of the change occurred beforehand.
- JEL Code
- C46 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Specific Distributions, Specific Statistics
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
C24 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models
- 1 March 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2136Details
- Abstract
- We suggest a new method dealing with the problem of endogeneity of the threshold variable in single regression threshold models and seemingly unrelated systems of them based on copula theory. This theory enables us to relax the assumption that the threshold variable is normally distributed and to capture the dependence between the error term and the threshold variable in each regime of the model independently of the marginal distribution of the threshold variable. This distribution can be estimated non-parametrically conditionally on the value of threshold parameter. To estimate the slope and threshold parameters of the model adjusted for the endogeneity of the threshold variable, we suggest a two-step concentrated least squares estimation method where the threshold parameter is estimated based on a search procedure, in the first step. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the suggested method deals with the endogeneity problem of the threshold variable satisfactorily. As an empirical illustration, we estimate a threshold model of the foreign-trade multiplier conditional on the real exchange rate volatility regime. We suggest a bootstrap procedure to examine if there are significant differences in the foreign-trade multiplier effects across the two regimes of the model, under potential endogeneity of the threshold variable.
- JEL Code
- C12 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Hypothesis Testing: General
C13 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Estimation: General
C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- 8 April 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1780Details
- Abstract
- We explore the relationship between financial reforms and income inequality using a panel of 29 countries over 1975-2005. We extend panel unit root tests to allow for the presence of some financial-reform covariates and further suggest an associated but novel, semi-parametric approach. Results demonstrate that although both gross and net Gini indices follow a unit root process, this picture can change when financial reform indices are accounted for. In particular, whilst gross Gini coefficients are generally not stabilized by financial reforms, net measures are (more likely to be). Thus financial reforms enacted in the presence of a strong safety net would seem preferable.
- JEL Code
- C01 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→Econometrics
C12 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Hypothesis Testing: General
D63 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 10 February 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1757Details
- Abstract
- In a stochastic frontier setting, we examine technical efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Evidence suggests that in addition to economic indicators, political and social ones play a key role in development and frontier technical efficiency profiles. The MENA have been characterized by increasing economic efficiency over time but with marked polarization. The paper analyses and nest many key hypotheses in the literature e.g., the contributions of religion, of natural resources, demographic pressures, human capital etc. The originality of our contribution is the use of a large data set (including principal components), and extensive robustness checks. The paper should set a comprehensive benchmark and cross check for related studies of development technical efficiency.
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C38 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Classification Methods, Cluster Analysis, Principal Components, Factor Models
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development